Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. It’s election day in several US states and we begin today with a rundown of the key races to watch. We’ll also dive into:

• Netanyahu pulls back troops bound for Beirut after talks with Trump

• A scoop on US talks with Nato allies about expanding its nuclear deterrence in Europe

• An obituary for the American age of cheap money, energy and labour

Voters are heading to the polls in several key US states today in primary elections, the latest barometer of the national mood ahead of critical midterm elections in November.

As California governor Gavin Newsom — a potential 2028 presidential contender — has opted not to return to office, the state’s gubernatorial election will be one of the day’s most closely watched races.

The two candidates with the most votes in the state’s “jungle” primaries will be on the ballot in November, regardless of their party affiliation.

Of the six leading contenders, polling suggests that the race will be most closely fought between three: former health and human services secretary Xavier Becerra, former presidential candidate and hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer — both Democrats — and Republican Fox News alumnus and former Downing Street adviser Steve Hilton.

(Read more on Hilton and his unexpected candidacy in Friday’s edition of Swamp Notes.)

Polls will close tonight at 8pm local time, but it could be some time before the race is called. In the 2024 election cycle, it took California almost a month to process all of its ballots after election day.

In Los Angeles’ own “jungle” election, opinion polls show that the race will be tight between incumbent mayor Karen Bass, progressive city council member Nithya Raman and conservative Spencer Pratt, who rose to fame almost 20 years ago as a character on an MTV reality television series, The Hills.

Further north in San Francisco, a crowded field of Democrats are vying to succeed former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s seat in the House. The candidates embody some of the divides roiling the party nationwide, including their stance on Israel, the war in Gaza and the tussle between moderates and progressives.

One more election to watch is in Iowa, where the race for the governor’s mansion offers another test of the potency of President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Won twice by Barack Obama, Trump has since dominated the Midwestern state in presidential cycles. But Democratic operatives sense an opportunity, with the state’s Democratic auditor Rob Sand running a well-funded campaign as a moderate.

The Republican primary field is crowded, with five candidates vying to be the party’s nominee. Trump put his thumb on the scale on Friday, endorsing congressman Randy Feenstra, describing him as “Maga all the way”.

But under Iowa state law, Feenstra needs at least 35 per cent of the vote to become his party’s nominee, otherwise the state’s Republican Party will have to pick its contender in a convention.

• The US is discussing whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional European Nato states, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support does not weaken security guarantees.

• Trump has dropped his plan for a $1.8bn “anti-weaponisation” fund after a backlash from Republicans.

• Growing US reliance on Chinese biotech companies is prompting national security concerns among investors and lawmakers.

• A US Army hackathon is seeking to emulate Ukraine’s success in enabling weapons systems to talk to each other.

Monday was another day of brinkmanship and frantic diplomacy amid efforts to broker a lasting truce in the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the country’s Revolutionary Guards, said that Tehran had suspended its back-channel negotiations with the US in response to Israel expanding its bombing campaign in Lebanon against Hizbollah and “ceasefire violations” on all fronts.

Later in the day, however, following a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump claimed that Israel and Hizbollah had agreed to a ceasefire.

The US president wrote on social media that he had held a “productive call” with Netanyahu and another with “highly placed Representatives” of Hizbollah.

Trump said “there will be no [Israeli] troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way have already been turned back”.

Hizbollah had “agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel”, he added. The US president followed up with another post on Monday saying that talks with Iran were “continuing, at a rapid pace”.

Tehran’s suspension of the talks came as Iran attacked a US military base in Kuwait in response to American strikes against military targets in southern Iran.

The strikes threatened to unravel a fragile ceasefire, struck in April, which paused the hostilities in the war.

Last week, US officials said they had reached agreement on a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but noted that Trump had yet to sign off on the document.

The US then amended language in the draft proposal relating to the reopening of the strait and Iran’s nuclear programme, a person briefed on the talks said.

• Overlooking the sometimes troubling but largely rational complaints of America’s Gen Z would assure the Democratic Party’s failure in 2028, argues Edward Luce.

• The US is leaving the era of cheap labour, cheap capital and cheap energy, writes Rana Foroohar.

• Look beneath the surface, and America’s profit machine is not much stronger now than it was during the dotcom boom, argues Ruchir Sharma.

• Russian history suggests that Vladimir Putin could pay a personal price for his disastrous war in Ukraine, writes Gideon Rachman.