Good morning. A new central bank chief can use their first press conference to establish policy credentials and a communication style. These performances can move markets — think of former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s pivotal “whatever it takes” moment in 2012.

Kevin Warsh held his first conference as chair of the US Federal Reserve last Wednesday. He had built his candidacy for the role on lower interest rates, which President Donald Trump ardently desires. But that was before the Iran war and a run of hotter than expected economic data changed the inflation outlook. His task at the podium was to convince markets he was serious about price stability.

We can assess a new Fed chair’s effectiveness as a policy communicator by looking at how fed funds futures prices — options markets’ bets on the policy moves — change in the 24 hours around that first conference. The wider the gap between the before and after lines in the charts above, the more the chair moved the market’s expectations for where rates are headed over the next 12 months.

On that measure, Warsh’s debut stands out. The market priced in nearly double the number of rate increases after his press conference as it had before it. Janet Yellen and Jay Powell, by contrast, barely moved the dial. But it’s worth noting some major caveats here. The degree to which a chair needs to lean against the market’s expectations is shaped by the economic conditions they inherit. For Warsh’s immediate predecessors the challenge was not inflation but deflation. Also, Ben Bernanke’s first press conference — the Fed’s first ever — came five years into his term.

Warsh has said he’d like the central bank to communicate less. The Federal Open Market Committee’s first statement on his watch was less than half the normal length and he has hinted at reducing the number of press conferences. If Wednesday is any guide, the market may hear less from Warsh, but react more.

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