Hello and welcome to Working It, the FT’s weekly guide to leadership and the workplace.

I’ve been in Santiago de Compostela — my favourite Spanish city 🇪🇸. I immersed myself in the history of the giant religious complex that makes up the heart of the old town; even walking across the cathedral roof for a better view 🫣. Santiago is filled with ancient alleys, cloisters and churches, offering shelter from the city’s famous drizzle; quiet places where plotting has taken place for centuries. Workplace politics is nothing new 🤫.

Read on for some predictions on AI’s impact on our jobs by 2030. And in AI Clinic, we advise a recent graduate facing the rather more pressing matter of getting a job in 2026 😥.

I’m always delighted to hear from Working It readers: isabel.berwick@ft.com.

A big new forecast on job gains and losses shows an almost-neutral long-term impact from AI: a net gain of 1.7mn jobs by 2030. That’s made up of separate AI-related job losses (8.9mn) and gains (10.6mn). If true, it suggests that reports of an AI jobpocalyse are, perhaps, overstated 🤞🏼.

Helen Poitevin, distinguished VP analyst, digital workplace at Gartner, is behind this latest research. She told me that India and China are excluded from the numbers because of the “massive size of their agricultural workforce, which would skew some of the analysis”. The resulting prediction is interesting in its lack of impact: AI-related job losses by 2030, Helen said, could affect just “1.8 per cent of the workforce, so it’s actually quite small in terms of numbers”.

The bigger projected impact is on the shape and content of our work. Just over 20 per cent of workers (435.5mn) will have their roles radically changed by AI. “In the next few years we will be in a rebalancing and recalibrating time,” she said.

One of the big emerging topics in future of work debates is the changing role of managers, who are going to be responsible for both humans and agents on their teams. Reassuringly, Helen’s research confirms there will be a need for humans to stay in their jobs, albeit changed jobs, at the centre of organisations. An AI-driven workplace, she said, “actually increases the need for people to be making the calls, making the decisions, taking accountability, saying ‘this is the direction we go in’.”

While the longer-term future may be relatively sunny 😎, today’s job seekers and would-be job changers face a big problem. Gartner highlights that the current recruitment market is essentially in hibernation 🐻: employers are “deferring” new job creation because of uncertainty over the impact of AI, or general economic conditions. In 2026, Gartner estimates 1.3mn positions were “deferred”, and that will rise to a collective 5mn by 2030. As an example of deferral, Helen said, a company might decide to hire 20 new staff rather than an initial plan to create 40 jobs.

Restraining hiring in this way is likely to be a short-term plan, Helen said. “Over time, we’ve seen many organisations that are more advanced in their AI strategies doing the corrective hiring” by taking on more people. For job seekers, it’s painful now, but Gartner’s overall jobs prediction is optimistic.

• In a nutshell: Perhaps the impact of AI on job losses and job creation is going to be broadly . . . neutral. In the meantime, current uncertainties mean many employers are choosing not to create new jobs.

• Want more? Sifted, the FT-backed European tech news organisation, this week kicked off a new “jobs of the future” series with a profile of “content creator in residence”. Some start-ups are employing influencers already known for their social media impact — sometimes alongside “entrepreneurs in residence”.

The problem: I graduated in the summer with a degree in an arts subject from a solid UK university. I did an enjoyable short internship in a marketing department (secured with the help of the uni) so I am applying for admin and entry-level openings at similar businesses.

I have used AI to polish but not to write, I mirror language used in job ads, and am trying to meet people in real life. I have had one virtual interview so far (for an executive assistant role) and did not progress past the first stage.

Any ideas on what else I can do to make my applications stand out more in a sea of AI? 

The answer: Getting past the AI in recruitment processes is near-impossible. Jonathan Black, director, Careers, at the University of Oxford, is one of the country’s leading experts in graduate recruitment, so I asked him to advise you — and anyone else in need of a first job (and their concerned parents 😕).

Here’s Jonathan’s practical, step-by-step advice:

“The fundamental question that an employer asks is, ‘Do I want to work with this person? Will they help me deliver my service or product?’ For new graduates, put yourself in the employer’s position and work out what they want and need to know. This can be grouped into three topics: responsibility, achievement and teamwork. Show recruiters that you take responsibility; for example, in the internship you did, in university clubs or at home; that you achieve things, and that you would be positive to have on the team 🏆.

You had an internship and had help to get it from the university — these are two sources of contacts and support that you could tap into. You mention you had an interview, so that also can encourage you; someone thought you could do the job and that you got past the filtering. What did you learn for next time?

If you are missing key skills or experiences that employers list in the job ads, consider ways to gain them — perhaps volunteer with a local charity. There’s a list of skills and ideas for how to acquire them here.

Authenticity and honesty are essential criteria when hiring someone, so try writing without AI — you don’t need it. Elsewhere in the application process you can consider AI for suggesting organisations to apply to, questions you might get at interview, or background data on an industry — but not to represent your true self.

Finally, keep in mind the philosophy of “ABC” — Any job, a Better job, a Career. A “foot in the door” approach of taking any job, especially in smaller organisations, can be a great way to get started and show what you can do.”

Got a workplace AI tip, dilemma or question for our experts? Email isabel.berwick@ft.com

1. No employees and prototypes within days: AI supercharges start-ups: As Sam Altman’s prediction of a one-person “unicorn” company, worth $1bn, comes ever closer, Simon Kuper talks to the founders currently building companies with few staff and lots of agents.

2. From hotel rooms to the treetops, corporate awaydays get an upgrade: The cringe idea of organised fun with colleagues has had a makeover, post-Covid, with more teams bonding over non-work activities rather than enduring days in hotel conference rooms. Emma Jacobs reports.

3. AI is coming for managers’ headcount: The old equation of pay being linked to how many people you have in your team is being challenged by AI and the rising number of agents. They still need managing, as Pilita Clark reports.

4. No, Brits have not fallen out of love with work: The death of ambition has been greatly exaggerated. Sarah O’Connor examines how the twin career blockers of lack of money and lack of career progression have made us care less about our jobs.

5. Have you been spraymaxxing the Door Sausage? A fabulous glossary of modern scent terms from Ben Schott. Not strictly workplace, but given how many times I’ve heard people complain about a co-worker’s oppressive scent (we’ve surely all had to suffer this?) then the rise of the discreet “office perfume” is one to know.

A recommendation for Margaret Heffernan’s Substack, On The Level. Margaret is an entrepreneur, professor, author and, above all, an original thinker. Her newsletter this week is the text of her inaugural lecture as a fellow of Kellogg College, Oxford. “Beyond Determinism and Submission” gets to the heart of what gives humans agency and meaning. It’s about how to cultivate a creative mind — and make art 🖼️, in whatever form you choose. It’s one of the most original, hopeful pieces I’ve read this year. (Plus, Margaret offers approving mention of my colleague Sarah O’Connor’s book, We Are Not Machines 👏🏼.)

Last week’s newsletter, How Do You Sleep at Night?, about the hidden toll of lack of sleep among executives, was a hit on FT.com (and not just because of the catchy headline). The topic is under-discussed, so we will return to it in a longer piece.

Meanwhile, here’s Martin Siniawski, founder and CEO of Rest, an AI-powered sleep coaching programme. Taking up the newsletter’s point that nearly all leaders monitor their sleep, but that data can then make them more anxious 😬, he says that Rest has chosen a different measurement system:

Martin also points out that sleep issues affect everyone at work, not just CEOs and senior leaders. He cites a meta-analysis of 34 studies involving more than 172,000 people that “found that insomnia was associated with more than twice the risk of developing depression”.

David Walliams, the British author and comedian, has finally been named as the man behind a joint Guardian/ITV investigation into multiple women’s accounts of the star preying on them for sex, and of workplace harassment at both the TV show Britain’s Got Talent and his publisher, HarperCollins. Of the latter, Guardian journalists Maeve McClenaghan and Rachael Healy write, “the publisher severed ties with the star author after concerns were raised about his behaviour over several years, including an allegation that he had inappropriate sexual relationship with a junior female employee and pursued another”. Lawyers for Walliams say he denies the allegations of sexual harassment and inappropriate behaviour in the workplace.