Good morning and welcome to FirstFT. In today’s newsletter:

• Trump’s push for US manufacturing ‘golden age’ sputters

• Russia could invade Nato states by end-2028, warns Latvian general

• Musk’s SpaceX pitches investors $1.8tn valuation in IPO

• France’s €110bn AI boom tests Macron’s tech ambitions

We begin in the US, where Donald Trump’s push to revive its manufacturing sector has struggled to gain traction.

What to know: Trump’s pledge to unleash a “golden age” for US manufacturing is sputtering as corporate commitments to build factories fail to translate into construction.

US private spending on manufacturing construction fell in April to $15.2bn, down about 16 per cent since Trump’s second term began, while factory employment has fallen by 77,000 jobs over the same period, according to official data.

The decline in spending on building plants comes despite 84 companies announcing more than $900bn in investments to expand US manufacturing since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, according to FT calculations.

Why it matters: The divergence underscores how Trump has struggled with one of his flagship initiatives despite tariffs and pressure on businesses to invest in American factories.

“Announcements are what people say they’re going to do, but dollars spent is what’s actually happening,” said Didi Caldwell, chief executive of Global Location Strategies, which helps companies identify factory sites.

“From where we’re standing, we are not seeing signs of a manufacturing renaissance in the US.” Read the full story.

Here’s what I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Central banks: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Investment Association conference in London.

• Montenegro: The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas attends the EU-Western Balkans Summit.

• Results: Lululemon Athletica and Rémy Cointreau report earnings.

Ten years on, what’s next for Brexit? Take part in today’s live Ask an Expert Q&A with the FT’s Europe editor Ben Hall and Peter Foster, the FT’s World trade editor.

Five more top stories

1. Russia has gained an edge in drone warfare over Nato countries and could seek to exploit a “window of opportunity” by the end of 2028 to invade the Baltic states, Latvian military chief General Kaspars Pudāns has warned. Read the full interview.

• Thorn in the side: Moscow’s ban on Armenian roses is the latest trade restriction imposed on the pro-western government in Yerevan ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday.

• AfD Russia meetings: A senior official from the Alternative for Germany party has met the boss of Gazprom and another close confidant of President Vladimir Putin.

2. SpaceX has said it is seeking to raise as much as $86bn at a valuation of $1.78tn, as Elon Musk’s space and AI conglomerate prepares for the world’s biggest initial public offering. The IPO will cement Musk’s control of two of America’s most valuable companies, a position without modern precedent.

3. France secured more than €110bn of proposed AI and data centre investments this week, but the projects will test whether President Emmanuel Macron can overcome longstanding energy bottlenecks in order to become Europe’s tech powerhouse.

• FT Magazine: Can Anthropic hold on to its ethical founding principles as it strides to market with its most powerful AI tool yet?

4. Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a US-brokered ceasefire, as Washington seeks to end fighting between Hizbollah and Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. The deal announced by the US state department is contingent on the militant group stopping its attacks on Israel.

• Replay 1982: On Monday night Trump said he had asked Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu to cancel a “major raid of Beirut”, echoing a stand-off more than 40 years ago.

5. Exclusive: The UK Treasury is preparing to seize control from the Ministry of Defence of spending on a multibillion-pound fighter jet programme in an effort to ensure that the UK’s planned increase in military expenditure avoids a repeat of past cost overruns.

• London property: Top office rents in the City of London are approaching the levels charged in the capital’s West End.

The world’s leading banks, issuers and investors will gather in London for the FT Global Bond Summit on June 16-17. Register now.

The Big Read

This century, the US has embarked on wars of choice and borrowed more to pay for them. With the conflict in Iran costing an estimated $2bn a day, the risk of overstretch suddenly looks very real. John Plender lays out what this might mean for America, its friends and foes.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Investing in America: The FT and Nikkei have compiled a ranking of the best US cities for international business. Find out which city topped this year’s list.

• Saudi Arabia restructuring: The Gulf kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund has replaced foreign executives with local hires as the fund tightens spending.

• Ebola spreads to new areas: The outbreak of the disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been confirmed in 24 separate locations across three provinces.

Chart of the day

The number of wealthy people who have moved their tax jurisdiction or are planning to has more than halved after political and economic shocks driving relocations receded, research has found.

Take a break from the news

From Backrooms to Obsession, young filmmakers who learned their craft and earned a following with online videos are raking in mammoth box office returns on minimal budgets. Could YouTubers be the ones to pull Hollywood out of its malaise?

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Gordon Smith